Foreign Exchange Daily Market Commentary – UKForex – 30/09/2010

Foreign Exchange Daily Market Commentary – UKForex – 30/09/2010

United States Dollar: Sterling is now back within recent ranges against the Greenback. Sterling’s start above the big figure 1.5800 yesterday morning didnt last as UK consumer confidence came in weaker than expected and mortgage approvals came in pretty much as expected. This saw the currency pair dip to a low of 1.5780 on the back of this news. Pound has recovered since. FOMC member Rosengren spoke during the US session stating that the Fed must do more to lower unemployment and be willing to take unconventional steps to do so. Comments also from Philly Feds Plosser talked about there being no need for further asset buying. Sterling opens this morning at 1.5870 versus the US dollar.

– We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5780 to 1.5950

Euro: The single currency has seen more modest gains in the last 24 hours against the US dollar. European data again was very positive yesterday. Eurozone September economic sentiment came in stronger than median forecast, French September business confidence rose and talks seem to have swayed away from downgrades – for now. The EUR/USD didnt however break the 1.3650 barrier despite several attempts. The currency pair opens at 1.3633. Typical month-end demand will likely keep EUR/USD underpinned nearer the end of end of the European session. The Euro did however see impressive gains against the Pound during yesterday’s trade. GBP/EUR fell to a low of 1.1570, but these gains have been reversed overnight. Sterling is back up at 1.1654 this morning versus the Euro.

– We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.1580 to 1.1690

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The antipodean currencies are a little lower against the US dollar this morning. The commodity currencies saw some downward pressure last night as the US house passed the China FX bill. The bill is to send a message to China that they must raise the value of its currency. It is the first legislation to pass a chamber of congress in the issue. Australian building approvals coming in less than wont have helped the Aussie or Kiwi, but an upbeat RBA review has capped any large losses. AUD/USD opens at 0.9689 and NZD/USD is at 0.7379. Sterling sits a little higher on the back of these releases. GBP/AUD opens today’s session at 1.6400 and GBP/NZD is at 2.1526.

– We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6310 to 1.6490

– We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.1420 to 2.1610

Data Releases:

  • AUD: AIG Manufacturing Index, MI Inflation Guage m/m
  • EUR: German Unemployment Change, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Prelim CPI m/m
  • GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m, MPC Member Tucker Speaks, BOE Credit Conditions Survey, MPC Member Fisher Speaks
  • NZD: No data due for release today
  • USD: Unemployment Claims, Final GDP q/q, Chicago PMI, Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifes and Speaks


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