Foreign Exchange Daily Market Commentary – UKForex – 01/10/2010

Foreign Exchange Daily Market Commentary – UKForex – 01/10/2010

United States Dollar: Sterling has again broken the recent ranges seen against the US Dollar. A new 30 day high of 1.5915 has been seen and the low for the last 24 hours reached was 1.5670. Sterling’s gains during the UK session yesterday were where we saw the highs reached. A large buy order supported the Pound over 1.5900, but sovereign selling interest came in as we entered this big figure. The US session is where we saw the losses. US data showed that GDP was revised to +1.7 % in Q2 which was slightly better than expected and US jobless claims fell 453,000 which was better than expected. Taking into consideration this data along with month and quarter end purchasing of the Greenback, the USD pushed the Pound lower. To start this month and this quarter GBP/USD is back up at 1.5800.

– We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5710 to 1.5920

Euro: The single currency has remained firm against the US Dollar in the past 24 hours. Similar to the Pounds fall yesterday the Euro also fell on month and quarter end purchase of the US dollar. This took the currency pair to a session low of 1.3585 yesterday. The Euro had been heading lower during the session after Spain lost its AAA rating and with further news coming from Ireland with regards the poor state of its banking system. The Euro uptrend is still intact this morning though as it breaks 1.3700 to open today’s session at 1.3711. The Euro uptrend has also seen new 30 day highs against the Pound. It seems that Euro is favoured over the Pound with BOE”s Posen continuing to breed uncertainty over QE with comments again yesterday. Sterling begins the day at 1.1509 versus the Euro.

– We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.1450 to 1.1590

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The Aussie and Kiwi also remain strong versus the US dollar. The commodity currencies are once again close to recent highs against the Greenback opening at 0.9707 and 0.7391 respectively. The antipodean currencies did see losses earlier in the session as investors turned to the Greenback for close of quarter, but like all the majors currencies this morning, these losses have been reversed. Sterling sees no change from this week’s set of commentaries as it still sits low against the AUD and NZD. A further fall has been seen overnight and the currency pairings open at 1.6264 and 2.1370 respectively.

– We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6150 to 1.6360

– We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.1180 to 2.1520

Data Releases:

  • AUD: Commodity Prices y/y
  • EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate
  • GBP: Manufacturing PMI, Housing Equity Withdrawl q/q
  • NZD: No data due for release today
  • USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, ISM Manufacturing PMI


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