No unexpected outcomes from Carney’s first BoE meet

No unexpected outcomes from Carney’s first BoE meet

Sinduja Venkat

Good morning and welcome to today’s foreign exchange market commentary on 4th of July. 

Here are’s top 5 currency highlights:

  • No unexpected outcomes from Carney’s first BoE meet
  • EUR/USD dips on ECB and BoE’s dovish comments
  • NFP data on Friday is key risk event for USD this week
  • JPY Safe haven despite Euro events
  • USD/CAD on defensive post rally


GBP/EURO – 1.1743
GBP/USD – 1.5260
GBP/CHF – 1.4472
GBP/CAD – 1.6036
GBP/AUD – 1.6741
GBP/ZAR – 15.3847
GBP/JPY – 152.3579
GBP/HKD – 11.8322
GBP/NZD – 1.9596
GBP/SEK – 10.2204

Mid-market rates as of 2013-07-04 04:00 UTC

Key releases in the next 24 hours that may affect currency date:

Australia: AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUN)
Europe: EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (JUL 4), EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUL 4), EUR ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision
United Kingdom:  GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUL), GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (JUL 4)
New Zealand: No Data
United States of America: No Data
China: No Data
Canada: No Data
Japan: JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech at Branch Managers Meeting

No unexpected outcomes from Carney’s first BoE meet

On Thursday’s BoE meet under new governor Carney the central bank decided to keep the interest rate and asset purchase target at 0.5% and 375 billion Pounds respectively, as was expected. However, there was speculation that the new governor would look to add a forward guidance statement, as a measure to explicitly spell out flexible inflation targets and desired economic performance. As such the appearance of forward guidance that noted worry over interest rates was received as dovish in Forex markets.

EUR/USD dips on ECB and BoE’s dovish comments

Thursday’s session began with a wild start in the wake of BoE and ECB dovish statements, major pairs in the FX market managed to stabilize and settled within narrow ranges in the absence of US markets and ahead of the NFP report. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank provided some forward guidance on monetary policy, leaning to further monetary support if needed. Dovish approaches boosted stocks across Europe but crashed the GBP and the EUR. EUR/USD traded as low as 1.2881 before bouncing slightly to the 1.2920 zone.

NFP data on Friday is key risk event for USD this week

Two weeks ago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke released the US central bank’s rough time table for the long awaited, long-feared ‘Taper’. In an effort to clarify its position the Federal Reserve stated that it would maintain its accommodative stance only until jobless rate returned to 6.5 per cent and inflation held below 2.5 percent. The June NFP data to be released on Friday will give us further clues to help establish the actual direction that the Fed will take with regards to QE polices.

JPY Safe haven despite Euro events

Analysts have indicated that the JPY’s lingering safe haven appeal was evident when EUR/JPY tumbled -1.3% in short order as Portugal came under heavy pressure. The resignation of Portugal’s (bond market-friendly) finance minister and then foreign minister raised the danger of fresh elections and doubts over the bailout package.

USD/CAD on defensive post rally

USD/CAD foreign exchange rate found its rally being pushed back at the 1.0523 level on Wednesday. The pair has been on a downward spiral ever since.

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