Good morning and welcome to today\u2019s foreign exchange market commentary on Friday the 16th of December.<\/p>\n
As 2011 draws to an end, many may wonder what 2012 holds for us. If you are hooked to the media (which most of us are!), the picture turns rather gloomy. Talks of an imminent European recession, near zero-growth in the US in 2012 and a slowdown in China and other emerging economies, 2012 doesn\u2019t look pretty. <\/p>\n
Latin America is exposed to lower commodity prices (they are big exporters of commodity) as the advanced economies and China slows down, CEE countries are exposed to the EZ and a volatile political climate in the Middle East will continue to push oil prices up, further constraining global growth. In other words, the ride\u2019s looks bumpy in 2012.<\/p>\n
Germany has managed to beat the tide though till now. Previously German services PMI data was showing growth in the whole of Europe. Latest manufacturing data came stronger than expected, springing another surprise. While one swallow does not make a summer, it certainly gives some reason to cheer about. US jobless claims dipped to its lowest since May 2008. If the growth momentum is maintained \u2013though a weak EU poses significant growth risk for the US as well, the picture may get brighter as we move forward. The four-week average unemployment benefit is now 387,750, below the crucial 400,000 mark. Whether this is spike due to Christmas temp work will become evident as we move through January. <\/p>\n
GBP\/EURO \u2013 1.1906
\nGBP\/US$ \u2013 1.5508
\nGBP\/CHF \u2013 1.4594
\nGBP\/CAN$ – 1.6002
\nGBP\/AUS$ \u2013 1.5531
\nGBP\/ZAR \u2013 12.9772
\nGBP\/JPY \u2013 120.84
\nGBP\/HKD \u2013 12.0741
\nGBP\/NZD \u2013 2.0409
\nGBP\/SEK \u2013 10.7912<\/p>\n