Rational FX: UK’s Dec retail sales due, snowy weather lowers expectations [21/01/2011]

Rational FX: UK’s Dec retail sales due, snowy weather lowers expectations [21/01/2011]
Yesterday’s market movers

  • The only piece of data out from the UK yesterday was the CBI figure, this gives a measure on past and expected trends in exports, output and costs in the UK and as seen as a survey from industry executives.
  • The United States released their weekly jobless claims, these improved on last month’s number’s and showed less people are claiming first time benefits, this saw the US dollar gain against the British pound in afternoon trade as it was such a good figure.
  • Existing home sales were the second piece of data in the US yesterday these also came out better than the month prior which added to the dollar’s gains. This saw home sales jumped more than forecast in December as buyers tried to lock in low mortgage rates before the economic recovery pushed borrowing up further.
  • European consumer confidence today gave the euro a lift both against the US dollar and sterling. This reflects an increase in consumer confidence to the previous; however this may not be a fair reflection because consumer purchasing power tends to be higher in December.

Today’s market mover’s

  • There is no data out from both the euro zone and United States today; however as being a Friday there will always be volatility in the US dollar and euro due to traders and banks squaring up of positions ahead of the weekend.
  • The only piece of data out for the UK is the retail sales for December; the MoM is looking to come in slightly lower than previously this is due particularly to poor weather conditions in the UK as in a normal December would have seen as a higher figure due to Christmas sales. However YoY the figure is higher and show’s a reflection of economic growth within the UK, this can be supported by higher inflation levels.

Currencies
High
Low
Support
Resistance
GBP/EUR
1.1816
1.1736 
1.1760
1.1870
GBP/USD
1.5944
1.5882
1.5880
1.6040
EUR/USD
1.3560
1.3447
1.3300
1.3600
We wish you a very nice day.

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