Rational FX: Gross Domestic Product YoY figure out today [25/01/2011]

Rational FX: Gross Domestic Product YoY figure out today [25/01/2011]
Yesterday’s Market Movers

  • There was no data out for the UK and US yesterday
  • The first piece of data in the Euro zone yesterday was Germanys purchasing managers index for the services and manufacturing sector. The manufacturing figure came out slightly worse and the services figure came out better.
  • We also had the European monetary unions purchasing managers index for the services and manufacturing sector, this followed Germany’s good services figure and slightly worse manufacturing figure. Although the manufacturing PMI figure accounts for a large amount of the EU’s GDP, this had little effect on the euro due to strong Asian investment yesterday afternoon.
  • The last piece of data yesterday was the ‘European Monetary Union’ Industrial New Order figures MoM and YoY. The MoM figure came out slightly worse for November, this could have been due to the worries we saw around Portugal, Ireland and Spain leaving the EU’s confidence low in November. The YoY figure came better than expected hinting an increase of growth for the EU economy, will this be short lived?

Today’s Market Movers

  • This morning we have seen the German consumer confidence figure came out higher than expected, we could see growth in the EU slowly pick up off of this as Germany is the leading economy in the EU.
  • The first figure in the UK today is Gross Domestic Product YoY, a leading indicator for the growth of the UK economy, with this expected to come out worse than the previous quarter we
  • Could see inflation come off slightly, is this going to give the BOE something to think about when looking at interest rates?
  • The second piece of data for the UK is the Public Sector Net Borrowing figure expected to come in less than previous, showing that we are slowly cutting down the huge deficit the UK acquired during the recession. This figure will also give us an idea on the UK economy’s growth.
  • The most important piece of information in the UK economy today is Mervyn King’s speech, as the BOE chairman his view on the UK economy carries a lot of weight, and if he is to show a positive outlook on the current economic situation, we could see short term strength for sterling across the board.
  • In the US today we have the Consumer confidence figure for January, expected to come out higher than previous , the ‘January sales’ may have helped contribute to this figure as it shows that people are starting to be less cautious about spending their money, this is a good sign for US growth.

Currencies
High
Low
Support
Resistance
GBP/EUR
1.1772
1.1688
1.1630
1.1760
GBP/USD
1.6001
1.5918
1.5880
1.6020
EUR/USD
1.3685
1.3537
1.3500
1.3670
We wish you a very nice day.

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