ECB unlikely to slash rates further, further correction expected in Euro

ECB unlikely to slash rates further, further correction expected in Euro

Sinduja Venkat

Good morning and welcome to today’s foreign exchange market commentary on 8th of July. 

Here are MyCurrencyTransfer.com’s top 5 currency highlights:

  • GBP/EUR exchange rate dips on Carney’s dovish remarks
  • ECB unlikely to slash rates further, further correction expected in Euro
  • US equities boosted prior to Q2 earnings reports
  • USD/JPY begins week on steady note at over 101.00
  • AUD stable following China CPI

CURRENCY RATES OVERVIEW 

GBP/EURO – 1.1613
GBP/USD – 1.4920
GBP/CHF – 1.4404
GBP/CAD – 1.5773
GBP/AUD – 1.6378
GBP/ZAR – 15.1746
GBP/JPY – 150.7941
GBP/HKD – 11.5719
GBP/NZD – 1.9162
GBP/SEK – 10.1307

Mid-market rates as of 2013-07-09 00:56 UTC

Key releases in the next 24 hours that may affect currency date:

Australia: No Data
Europe: CHF Unemployment Rate (JUN), CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN), EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAY), CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (1Q), EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL), EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY), EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels, EUR ECB’s Draghi Speaks in Brussels, IMF Releases Euro-Area Article IV Statement
United Kingdom:  GBP RICS House Price Balance (JUN)
New Zealand: NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q), NZD NZ Card Spending – Retail (MoM) (JUN), NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUN)
United States of America: USD Consumer Credit (MAY)
China: No Data
Canada: CAD Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey (2Q), CAD Business Outlook Future Sales (2Q)
Japan: JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN), JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUN), JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUN)

GBP/EUR exchange rate dips on Carney’s dovish remarks

Trading session in Europe last week went about on an anxious note as investors concerns once again became centered on the future prospects of Portugal as news emerged that the nation’s coalition government was apparently coming apart following the resignation of two leading ministers. Rumors began to emerge that Portugal’s conservative government was on the edge of a major unraveling caused Europe indices to dip with Frankfurt’s benchmark Dax index closing down by 2.36%. Meanwhile, European bond yields, and particularly those of the struggling Eurozone states began to respond to the situation by advancing significantly. The Pound to euro exchange rate (GBP/ EUR) remained close to its near-term lows as the negative effect of the Portugal situation was being effectively negated by new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s dovish comments that rates would remain low despite Britain’s recent signs of recovery.

ECB unlikely to slash rates further, further correction expected in the pair

Analysts from ANZ New York have indicated that whether or not the ECB will actually slash interest rates remains uncertain despite expectations that EUR/USD will dip to 1.20. The consensus is that if the current trend of green shoots of recovery in the business cycle continue to keep up, then the ECB is unlikely to affect any changes. This makes it fairly certain that interest rates are likely to continue on the low. The analysts went further to say that the market is taking this new communication from the ECB as an indicator to sell off the EUR and that a period of further correction of EUR value against its peer currencies cannot be ruled out.

US equities boosted prior to Q2 earnings reports

US equity markets posted gains all around during Monday’s trading session to begin the week on a positive note ahead of the second quarter’s earnings reports due later on during the day. The Dow Jones Index had advanced by 0.60% during trading in the morning while the S&P500 had rallied by 0.51%. The USD was trading on the defensive despite the Dollar index remaining well above 84.00 although remains well bid above 84.00 the figure.

USD/JPY begins week on steady note at over 101.00

USD/JPY pair was observed to be holding up at above the 101.00 level on Monday. Following last week’s turbulence the markets have been more steady at the start of the week. This week several important economic events are coming up including Bank of Japan, Fed minutes and a raft of tier 2 US data releases all of which will impact the movement on this pair.

AUD stable following China CPI

The AUD/USD foreign exchange rate was once again down at 0.9108 after reaching higher levels at 0.9130 thanks to China CPI coming in higher than expected at 2.7 per cent compared to 2.5 per cent growth in the previous year. Australia NAB business confidence too reportedly rose to 0 from previous lows of -1.

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